The end of US dominance
We're gonna have oil at $40 dollars a barrel or we're gonna have oil at $150 a barrel. And if that happens, option number two, he he said it, you know, bluntly, straight to the point, it's going to be a global recession. So where we are now, we are not going towards option number one. We are fast advancing towards option number two. Because oil is now over 100. It's not coming down. It's between 100 and 110.
[. . .]
the best strategic analysts in Tehran, they are reviewing everything that the UAE did even before the war. What they have done this past three weeks and the conclusion is practically inevitable. They are already part of the wars side by side with the US and Israel. So there will be a counter punch. And for the moment, Iran has been very discreet. They only hit a few selective targets in the UAE uh in Dubai, Jabel Ali, the port, hotels where American troops were staying. But now it's a completely different story. So if the UAE if there is this attempt of let's say the beach head not a ground invasion and it's certified that UAE is part of it MBZ better be ready because Iran could turn his bling bling money laundering machine into a parking lot easily easily if they want to. So, the Dubai model as we know it is already dead. But then we're going to get to the Abu Dhabi energy export model and the artificial intelligence that the Emirates facilitates to Israel and to the US. So then it's going to be all out war Iran and UAE. This is extremely serious and everybody already knows that the UAE is part of it.
[. . .]
Qatar and Oman they have been very very clever. They are the only ones among the GCC that disassociated themselves on the war and being on the side of US Israel. So for all practical purposes, Oman and Qatar are neutral from now on and Iran recognizes that. But the other GCC's, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE, it's a completely different story. And we know that there was a document released by five of the GCC's without Oman plus Jordan, with the little king, condemning Iran which is a way of saying look we are siding with the Epstein syndicate.
he [President Trump] is seen to have blown it, to missed a terrific opportunity to change the direction that American foreign policy was going in. And if anything, he's on the old path. I think the key issue today is the Iran war. And all I can say is it's truly remarkable that he allowed himself to fall into this trap. This is much worse than Afghanistan, much worse than Iraq.
[. . .]
if you look at the 15point plan that he's now putting forward to the Iranians uh as the basis for working out a deal, it looks like unconditional surrender. And when I first saw the 15-point plan, I thought it was a joke. I thought that, you know, this was disinformation that the Iranians or the Israelis had put out. I couldn't believe this was a serious plan.
[. . .]
the United States and Israel started this war thinking that they could employ a shock and awe strategy uh built around decapitation. We decapitate the regime. we'd shock and awe the Iranians and people would rise up in the streets, they'd overthrow the regime and we would live happily ever after. This was the basic strategy. We had to win a quick and decisive victory for this to work and it failed. And by the way, anybody who has a basic understanding of international relations should have understood that this would fail from the get-go. it was just not going to work. And it didn't work. But then we found ourselves in a protracted war. Here we are. And I don't think most people fully realize it, but the Iranians hold almost all the cards in a protracted war.
[. . .]
Iran is dealing with an existential threat here. The Israelis especially, but also the Americans want to wreck their state. They talk about regime change, but the Israelis are interested in more than regime change. They want to destroy Iran. They want to do to Iran what happened to Syria. They want to break it into pieces. They want to make Iran a number of states or one single state that is remarkably weak. This is an existential threat. And when you face an existential threat, and as you pointed out, they've faced this existential threat for a long period of time. They know they can't trust the Americans and the Israelis. Given that dimension of the equation, they have a deep-seated interest in continuing this war and pushing the Americans and the Israelis to make huge concessions to them.
[. . .]
as the Iranians, the North Koreans, the Chinese, and the Russians have demonstrated, there's only one way you deal with President Trump, and that is you stand up to him. If you behave like Mark Ruter, he's going to walk all over you. He's a classic bully. Everybody should have figured that out by now. If you show weakness, as the Europeans consistently do, with the exception of the Spanish prime minister, if you show weakness, if you behave like Mark Ruter, President Trump is just going to slap you around and continue to slap you around because again, he's a bully.
Russia has a lot of equities on the table with respect to Iran and I do not believe that Russia is going to stand by and let Iran be destroyed. It doesn't necessarily mean that Russia is going to rush into war, but you know, the Russians and Chinese, they're recognizing we're at a transition point in history now, much like what happened at the end of World War II. You know, those institutions that came into being, including the United Nations, most people don't realize that the League of Nations had continued to exist through World War II, it was just irrelevant. Well, guess what? the United Nations is no longer relevant because the Trump administration has declared we don't respect international law. There's no such thing as international law. So I think Russia and China are looking actually to towards the future where we're going to need a new infrastructure, a new economic infrastructure where the United States can't hold countries hostage. a new international law infrastructure that's actually going to have some teeth to it to prevent nuclear powered countries like the United States and Israel from attacking a country that doesn't have nuclear weapons.
[. . .]
Trump faces two two choices. He either doubles down, escalates, and launches an operation to topple the regime. And you're not going to do that without an extraordinary massive land force marching on Tehran, which I think is inconceivable. The other alternative is Trump says, "I've declared victory. I'm going to walk away from this." But that's not going to fool anyone. Trump will be humiliated in doing so.
Related
Articles:
Forum post:
