Grim outlook perspectives
once this war starts it
3:48
it's it it achieves a momentum and a logic of its own. So the United States h doesn't really
3:57
have an offramp meaning that if it tries to negotiate a ceasefire with Iran, Iran would ask
4:04
for reparations about $1 trillion basically. It would ask for the United States to leave the
4:11
Middle East permanently to ensure its long-term survival. If the United States were to do that,
4:18
then the GCC nations would collectively become client states of Iran because only Iran
4:24
can guarantee their safety as well as use of the shared home. The GCC is the basis of the petro
4:32
dollar. So what the GCC does is it sells oil in US dollars and then recycles this money back into the
4:39
American economy. So if the GCC were to abandon the petro dollar, then this would have severe
4:45
repercussions on the American economy. Also, there'll be a chain reaction in that
4:52
Japan and South Korea would look at what's happened in the Middle East and decide that
4:58
the United States can no longer guarantee its their safety. So, they would have to remilitarize
5:04
and they would have spent all the resources on adapting to the possible China threat.
5:10
And then you have Europe, and the Europe would look at what happened in the GCC as well as in
5:16
Southeast Asia and they would be like why are we fighting Russia? Wouldn't it be in our best
5:21
interest to negotiate a peace treaty with Russia as soon as possible? What this would mean the
5:27
collapse of the uh US dollar as a global reserve currency. Remember that America is sitting on $39
5:35
trillion in debt. And so the American economy is a Ponzi scheme that relies on foreign
5:41
nations to continually buy US dollars. So the US economy would not be able to withstand essentially
5:48
American withdrawal from the Middle East. So the Americans are stuck where they are right now
5:54
unfortunately.
[. . .]
both United States and China benefit from the status quo.
6:19
And China has invested interest in seeing a very quick solution to this war in Middle East.
6:28
China imports about 40% of its energy needs from the GCC. So not just Iranian oil but also
6:34
Qatari natural gas. Right. So as you point out, China very much wants to see as soon as possible
6:41
a ceasefire. Unfortunately it is the nature of the Chinese government not to interfere in
6:50
foreign affairs. It it China doesn't really have a geopolitical framework, a grand strategy.
6:57
it really believes in global trade and it doesn't really have a framework for how to
7:02
resolve armed conflict and so Chinese policymakers are really stuck and in fact Chinese
7:09
policy makers have come out publicly saying that they would like the carnage
7:15
the violence in Middle East to stop as soon as possible and for the straight of Hormuz to open up.
7:21
but unfortunately as I pointed out previously when war a war starts it achieve a momentum and a
7:27
logic of its own and it's very hard to stop a war once it starts.
there have been American citizens killed by settlers and
15:19
by the IDF in particular. And the US embassy has not said a word and
15:29
they have deferred to the Israeli legal system if one is wants to use a euphemism
15:36
to handle the issue. And of course, the Israeli legal system does absolutely nothing. So, this is a total outrage
15:45
that's been going on. I served in embassies and consulates overseas for many years, and it was always a first
15:54
priority to protect Americans and to demand consequences if things happen to them overseas. And this is the first
16:03
time I have noted an administration, a government that through the State
16:09
Department does absolutely nothing to protect Americans and to protect
16:17
those who are religious and and believe they actually had a had freedom to go
16:24
into a Catholic church or a Presbyterian church is that they were had the same right to worship as they saw fit that the Israeli Jews see.
16:38
But apparently that's not the way things play out in our best friend and greatest ally, Israel.
the war in the Middle East has pulled US military power away and distracted the
3:28
United States diplomatically. Hegseth keeps talking about how the United States is going to stand with Asia
3:34
that we're going to do more in Asia than any previous administration has done. But we see the opposite happening.
3:40
We see the THAD leaving South Korea. We see the Indopacific Command talking about reducing exercises. So we actually
3:47
see the opposite. And I think allies in in Asia are starting to understand watching the US military in the in the
3:53
Middle East that the US military power is is less than it was in the past. What the US can do is less than it was in the
3:59
past. And they're responding to this
I feel like we have been kind of just going based on Trump thinking that he can control the
11:21
cadence and the pace of the war based on when he decides to start it and to stop it. And the Iranians have played a very, very smart long game here in terms of
11:30
wearing down our interceptors, having their critical munitions, their ballistics, and their drones spread out and dispersed so that even when we
11:38
concentrated fires in one location, it wasn't catastrophic for them. So, I'm not sure if we're really thinking very strategically, but then you have these
11:46
leaks coming from the Pentagon. And so, these leaks are either one of two things. It's either a bluff, and we really have plenty, which I'm skeptical of because of how much we sent to
11:53
Ukraine before this whole war even started. Or you have desperate people inside the Pentagon who are saying like, well, the only way for me
12:00
to get this information out to kind of, you know, signal the alarm here is is to have it, you know, leak out to the media to hopefully force President
12:08
Trump's hand so he actually hears about this. I don't know what the case is, but for us to just s sit here and think again that we can control the pace and
12:16
we can continue to fight this based on whatever weapon systems and munitions that we have on hand, that's just absolutely foolish thinking right now at
12:24
this point. Like I don't understand how we have, you know, five months now of data on conflict with Iran and we're
12:32
still using the exact same tactics, which it drives me crazy, you know, but here we are, you know, we're fighting them from GWAT bases and we're
12:39
pretending like we didn't just observe the entire war in Ukraine. So, I guess I shouldn't be too surprised.
[. . .]
they're getting put on Fox to say these things over and over again. And the reason why they're getting put on Fox is
28:24
because the impact and the power that the Israeli lobby has. And they want us to put boots on the ground. They
28:31
want us engaged in this fight because again, people have to remember that we are driven into this by the Israelis.
28:38
And the Israelis are completely comfortable with this being a chaotic situation with just a constant baseline of fighting and military operations.
28:46
Now, no American official, elected official or military official would ever be able to sell that to the American people, but that is the Israeli lobby's
28:54
goal. And that's why you're getting a volley of these folks put forward on the different shows because they know President Trump watches it and they know a lot of these other generals, they
29:02
like, you know, Caine and Kellogg, they only have one trick and that is to say, "Hey, we just need more military.
29:08
We just need to be hard and we just need to go in there and and put boots on the ground." And if they say that repetitively enough and then the generals come to President Trump and they say, "Hey, we're running out of the
29:15
sophisticated standoff munitions and the sophisticated interceptors that we need, then they're hoping that at the right time, President Trump will hear, "Hey, boots on the ground." And then, you
29:24
know, he's going to say, "Okay, if we put boots on the ground, what do we get?" Then the Pentagon's going to say, "Well, if you put boots on the ground, what you then get is you get the ability to shoot some more munitions
29:32
that we have a bigger inventory of because you're already there on the ground." So I think this could escalate or, you know, kind of snowball
29:41
into us getting boots on the ground to get us sucked into this protracted quagmire.
[. . .]
They're they're terrified that Trump is going to walk away and then if he walks away it'll be harder to get him to go back in. And you might not ever get a president ever again who's going to take
33:24
this bait and so they want him to put boots on the ground, take some form of more aggressive military action that gets more of our guys killed. So then
33:32
we're locked into essentially this blood debt where we can't leave because we've already, you know, lost so many people.
33:38
We have to stay and we have to finish the job. I also think, like I said, the Pentagon is going to say, "Hey, if we're running out of some of these more
33:45
advanced weapon systems, if we put boots on the ground, we might be able to hold the straits of Hormuz, and we might be able to use some of our less sophisticated weapon systems." And I
33:53
guarantee you right now, because the president hasn't pulled our guys out because he keeps talking about doing more strikes. You and I both know the Pentagon, we know CENTCOM, we know that
34:01
they are developing multiple courses of action to give the president options right now. And basically the Fox News, the echo chamber, they want to get
34:09
President Trump committed so that Trump has to go with some form of a military option. And again, all of this is being done at the behest of the the Israeli
34:18
lobby. The Israelis want us to be forever engaged in this. They are completely satisfied if we have a protracted, you know, 20-year war where
34:27
the Iranians are too busy fighting us to do anything offensive against the Israelis. That completely meets the Israelis national security objective.
34:34
So again, President Trump really needs to look at who he's getting advice from and see what their motivations truly are.
[. . .]
I do think that that the game that is being ran on
35:38
President Trump right now is very sophisticated. And also, I think pretty soon here, we've already started to see the beginnings of this. We're going to see the Ukraine war and the Iran war
35:47
being linked together. Zelinsky obviously didn't like it that he wasn't getting as much attention and so he had the Ukrainian strike those Iranian
35:55
vessels in in the Caspian Sea. And then I think you're going to see a lot of people, it's a lot of the same characters, but a lot of the Neocons who were for us getting involved in the
36:02
Ukraine war, they've been, you know, at the behest of the Israeli lobby, you know, encouraging this operation as well. pretty soon here. I think if they
36:09
can get President Trump to bite off on more war inside of Iran really quickly, we're going to start hearing a narrative
36:16
here almost World War II as America or even like we saw at the end of at the beginning of the Giwad after 911 like
36:23
hey this is going to be the United States of America and a small coalition of the willing fighting for the the freedom and democracy of the entire world because you know the the crazy
36:32
Iranians they're now teaming up with the evil Vladimir Putin and so now we have this massive war and This literally is is how world wars start. And so that's
36:40
really what I do fear. And I do think there is something much more nefarious and sinister that is trying to link these wars and trying to push
36:47
America into this state of, you know, perpetual and even potentially world war.
[. . .]
you know, Marco Rubio and a bunch of wealthy Cuban-American donors in Florida, they really want us to go knock over the
42:45
regime down there in Cuba, and we think it'd be pretty easy, so let's just kind of tie a bunch of other intelligence to it to justify it. Again, that's how you
42:53
discredit the the good work of the intelligence community and potentially even get us involved in like another quagmire that's completely not necessary.
